OBAMA, IRAN, AND THE FED

PRESIDENT OBAMA

In his remarks on TV today, about the pending agreement to ban nuclear weapons development in Iran, came across as sincere and convincing, in my estimation.  Seeking to work out a solution, although somewhat temporary, between the mutually assured destruction policy of the past, and the hoped for elimination of all nuclear weapons use, he presented a case that was a reasoned approach that seems to have some safeguards.  It could be a win-win situation rather the present lose-lose one.  The fact that it incorporates input from many other countries makes it more palatable and more likely to succeed with sustained vigilance.

IRAN

The volatile Middle East is a tough place to have reason take a leading role.  Factions that recruit child suicide bombers and rule through fear and mass beheadings are difficult to deal with once they are established.  So the proposed agreement is probably as good as is possible in such an environment.  So Iranian officials may have to soft pedal their statements and live with factions that say "death to America."  In such a hostel environment an Israel spokesperson can hardly be expected to endorse an agreement short of destruction of nuclear facilities rather than a well designed inspection program and related other contingent measures.

THE FED

The indication that the Federal Reserve System will start raising interest rates later this year brings some uncertainty about the direction the economy will take.  In the past such a measure might have spooked the stock market.  But rates are so low it might have the opposite effect.  If rates continue to rise, companies may eventually borrow and expand at such a great rate that it could lead to a boom then a bust with a dramatic fall of the economy.

The political will to do a good job of maintaining stable growth, jobs, and reasonable interest rates is sometime difficult to get.  There is some correlation of economic results and the four year presidential election cycle.  It is made more difficult by the idiotic no-tax increase pledges signed by some legislators; it is a pledge to not use your brain when needed.

I was only an infant when the economy tanked in 1929.  I would hope that the economists and politicians can work together to prevent a decline of that magnitude.  Everyone can help by not taking on excessive personal debt and having a personal savings program to supplement social security when they retire.  My father noted that some he knew that were worst hit by the depression had really been flaunting their wealth and spending beyond their means before it struck.

This is neither an endorsement nor a criticism of Democrats or Republicans, they can be equally offensive, but deserving of praise when they show some bipartisan progress.

How did this get in an evolution blog?  Extinction via nuclear destruction could loom with no progress on arms control.  Nuclear destruction could give a fresh evolutionary start without us, but would take millions of years for recovery.

Joe Engemann   Kalamazoo, Michigan    July 15, 2015